Looking at three midfield options that could push Luton Town to promotion

Rob Edwards with a thumbs up.

The Championship season is arduous, where every point is hard-fought, like going toe-to-toe with a boxing heavyweight. Luton Town desperately needs reinforcements in central midfield. With Barkley, Lokonga, and Berry gone, there's a pressing need to fill these gaps, with Barkley's departure being the hardest to address. Shandon Baptiste has joined the team, but it’s a widespread belief that we still need one or two more midfielders to strengthen the squad.

From the two preseason games so far it has been noticeable the lack of control we have had in the midfield area: Zak Nelson impressing but showing his youth, Pelly looking lacklustre, Nakamba and Baptiste are absent, but with Jordan Clark looking like his usual self, there is some positive news. With a 46-game league season, the squad will already be playing eight more fixtures compared to last year; squad depth will be key to managing that.

With the plan being to get promoted at the first time of asking, Rob Edwards saying as much himself, dominating the central midfield in our games will be essential. Another factor to consider is that for the first time in a while, teams may be sitting back against us, having adequate ballplayers and carriers will certainly be needed to counteract this. 

In Luton fashion, rather than opting for three players who demand stupidly high fees, I will be providing a 'budget' striker, a 'mid-range' striker who wouldn't be cheap, nor break the bank, and a 'premium' striker who will cost a pretty penny but significantly help.

The Budget Brilliance

Leonardo Da Silva Lopes (25) - Free Agent

Lopes putting in a tackle on ex-Luton favourite Ross Barkley

When reading this name, you might be thinking - 'I recognise that name'. And you probably do because he started his career in England, with stints at Gillingham, Wigan, Peterborough, and Hull before spending the last three years at Cercle Brugge.

At 25, he's entering his prime, and with 289 appearances under his belt—169 of those in English competitions (Cups, League One, and Championship)—he brings solid experience. His recent time in Belgium's top division, often compared to the Championship, should make his transition back to English football smoother.

Cercle Brugge employ a similar 3-4-3 or 5-2-3 system to that of Luton, minus the tactical tweaks, as such he is comfortable playing in a two-man midfield, this predominantly being on the right of the two. Having a player who can understand the inner workings of a system before joining would significantly help with getting him up to speed. Interestingly, the last five games of Brugge's system saw him playing at left-back, an area in which we require cover for Doughty.

Now, let's analyse the player directly. A lazy, but fairly accurate comparison would be to that of Kante, at their respective levels of course. While small in stature at 5ft6, Lopes is impressive in the air; winning 3.24 aerial duels per game (93rd percentile) at a rate of 59.8% (77th percentile). Opposition teams are forced long due to Brugge's high press, Lopes is often capable of winning these battles being in the 77th percentile for tackles in the attacking third. Furthermore, he is excellent at breaking up play, blocking 1.62 passes per 90 (86th percentile) and making 1.92 blocks per 90 (91st percentile). 

There are some areas where he needs to improve. His pass completion rate is just 65.9%, putting him in the 3rd percentile. However, this is largely due to his aggressive playstyle, aiming to move the ball forward and create danger. He completes 5.92 progressive passes per 90 (75th percentile), alongside 4.55 passes into the final third and 1.11 passes into the penalty area per 90 (both in the 70th percentile).

Where he really needs to step up is in his ball-carrying ability. He averages 27.3 carries per 90 (5th percentile) and a progressive carrying distance of 60.52 yards. For comparison, last year Ross Barkley had 36.54 carries and a progressive carrying distance of 117.90 yards per 90. On the upside, Lopes draws a similar number of fouls as Barkley, with 1.82 per 90 compared to Barkley's 1.86.

Overall, Leonardo Da Silva Lopes looks like a smart signing, offering great value for money. And if nothing else, we've added a player with a standout name.

Mid-Range Mastery

Lewis O'Brien (25) - Nottingham Forest

Lewis O'Brien when playing for Forest against Fulham

I chose Lewis O'Brien for several compelling reasons. First, he always impressed me whenever I watched him play. Second, Nottingham Forest reportedly wants to offload him, making him available. Third, we were linked with him by The Sun—though I admit that's not the most reliable source. Nevertheless, the first two points are the driving forces behind my choice.

O'Brien would likely be available for around £5 million, which is an excellent price for a player of his calibre. At 25, he's entering his prime and brings vast Championship experience, including play-offs, plus experience in a Premier League team that knows how to stay up. However, there's a slight risk. Since joining Forest, O'Brien hasn't quite reached the heights he did at Huddersfield. He managed 13 Premier League games before going on loan to DC United in 2023. While he impressed there, it's hard to gauge his performance given it's the MLS. He also made only 23 Championship appearances for Middlesbrough last year. Despite these concerns, O'Brien's talent and experience could make him a valuable asset, especially if we aim to return to the Premier League.

As you can tell from the graphic below he would represent a more natural Barkley replacement than Lopes would, with an excellent ball-carrying ability: 41.17 carries per 90, a progressive carry distance of 108.22 yards per 90, both of these ranking him in the 85th percentile, and lastly 2.17 carries into the final third per 90 which classes him in the 88th percentile. He is an excellent passer of the ball, completing 91.6% of his short passes, these class as passes between 5 and 15 yards. With these passes, he moves the ball into attacking areas well, completing 4.8 passes into the final third (78% percentile). 

A stats diagram about Lewis O'Brien from FBref

Overall, he's solid defensively and outstanding on the ball, but his attacking play has some room for growth. An attacking threat isn’t crucial for our central midfield setup, he would provide reliable cover for Nakamba, or the pair could form a strong partnership.

Premium Perfection

Dan Neil (22) – Sunderland

Dan Neil dribbling with the ball for Sunderland

Right off the bat, this signing is bold and likely pricey, but it would send a serious message of intent. Although it's tough to pin down an exact figure, with two years left on his contract and reports that he's turned down a new deal at Sunderland, the prospect of joining one of the promotion favourites might be tempting.

To make this deal happen, we need to flash the cash. A bid of around £15M, with an additional £5M in add-ons and a sell-on fee, could do the trick. For context, Ismael Kone (22) moved from Watford for £15M, Downes (25) went to Southampton for up to £18M, and Wharton (20) fetched up to £22M. Given that Neil is just 22, he represents a potential investment and I see him in the Premier League within two years.

Neil has been exceptional over the past three seasons, contributing 27 goals despite that not being his primary role. His real standout quality is his ability to control the game. He’s a masterful passer - whether it’s short, medium, or long-range - always looking to advance play and create danger. Here are some figures to back this up:

• Pass completion 87.4% (86th percentile)

• Pass completion short 90.8% (77th percentile) - passes completed between 5 and 15 yards

• Pass completion medium 91.1% (82nd percentile) - passes completed between 15 and 30 yards

  Pass completion long 72.5% (82nd percentile) - passes played longer than 30 yards

• Passes into final third 6.26 per 90 (87th percentile) 

• Progressive passes 7.63 per 90 (91st percentile)

A concise summary is simply - this man knows how to pass a football. But he combines this passing talent with an excellent ability to dribble with the ball, let's take a look at some of his numbers: A progressive carrying distance of 117.49 yards per 90 (90th percentile) - where a player moves the ball while controlling it with their feet towards the opponent's goal. This is nearly identical to Barkley's aforementioned 117.90 yards. 1.80 carries into the final third per 90 (84% percentile) - where a player carries the ball into the attacking third of the pitch, beating Ross' figure of 1.68. 

Last season, the impact of top-quality central midfielders was crystal clear. The difference Lokonga and Barkley made was night and day compared to other options. Imagine the potential of pairing Nakamba with Neil in the Championship—it's an exciting prospect. Nakamba’s knack for breaking up play combined with Neil’s finesse on the ball would be a midfield dream team.

Sure, it would be a significant investment for the club, but it’s hard to see this transfer not paying off. Whether it’s through a boost to our promotion hopes this season or as a long-term asset, this move could be a game-changer.

My assessment

As we gear up for the 24/25 Championship season, any of the three options mentioned would be a valuable addition to our promotion push. Whether it’s a player vying for a first-team spot in Lopes, or the two immediate shoo-ins in Dan Neil and Lewis O'Brien, each choice has its merits. Do you have a standout among them?

Share your thoughts on the ideal choice for you!